Friday, 9 March 2018


Mar 11:

OK so the JLT is done, and your practice games are also complete. Each weeks blog post then winds up with:
AFL match confirmations.
1(+) Port Adelaide - Adelaide (-)9872Port26
2(+) Hawthorn - Carlton (-)97102Carl-5
3(+) Geelong - Essendon (-)97101Esse-4
4(+) Gold Coast - Brisbane (-)4942Gold7
5(+) Fremantle - West Coast (-)10139Frem62

Your head to head scores vs your opponents.
@BobLogIV3 - 2@BrotherAmos
@GeoffMatho0 - 3@CommishSuper10
@Hardsy053 - 1@JF_40
@MaxLaughton2 - 1@MatDatson
@NickTheStatsGuy1 - 1@Suburbia3121

And your division's league ladder.

Right, now lets talk through the scoring.
@BobLogIV3 - 2@BrotherAmos
BroAmos gets 1pt each for correct on Port and Gold Coast.
Bob gets 1pt for correct and nearer the actual on Freo (Amos was correct, but too far away, so 0pts). Bob also gets 2pts for correct on Carlton and within the -3/+3 difference (actual - tipped) bonus window.

@GeoffMatho0 - 3@CommishSuper10
Matho wrongly tipped every game, so 0pts.
The Commish scored 1pt each for correct on Port, Carlton, and Freo.

@Hardsy053 - 1@JF_40
Hardsy gets 1pt for tipping closer to the actual Port winning margin, plus 2pts for tipping Gold Coast as correct and in the -3/+3 difference (actual - tipped) bonus window
JF tipped Essendon to win at a lower margin than Hardsy so scores the 1pt from that game. 

@MaxLaughton2 - 1@MatDatson
Max gets 1pt each for being correct on Ess and the Suns, while Mat gets 1pt for being correct on Freo. No bonuses here.

@NickTheStatsGuy1 - 1@Suburbia3121
In a draw, Suburbia gets 1pt for tipping Port. Nick squared the ledger Tipping the Suns by a margin closer to the actual (no points for Suburbia in getting that tip right, but with a margin further away than Nicks). 

Hope all that makes sense.
Hit me up on twitter or in the comments if you need clarification, have questions etc.

Mar 9 (later):

Thanks folks for tipping, and tipping promptly.
The next phase after all players have tipped (or deadline has been reached) is to issue the match-ups so you can see what your opponent has tipped.


SO to read that and understand play, lets review a match-up pair like Nick vs Subu.
First game is Port vs Crows is simple enough. If Port win, Subu gets 1pt. Nick gets 1pt if Adel win. No points for an incorrect tip.
An additional point is given if inside a +3/-3 margin window. So for Nick, that's Adel by -7 to -13.
And for Subu that's Port by 14 to 20.
If either player gets the margin exactly right, its another point (for a total of three - one for correct, one for inside the -3/+3 window, and 1 for the exact).

Now looking at the next game both players went for Hawthorn. If Carlton win, no one gets a point.
If Hawthorn wins then the amount they win by becomes very important as you only get points by being correct AND nearest the pin.
So if its Hawt by 34, then its 1pt to Nick, and none to Subu. Same as if its Hawt by 3, but Subu gets the 1pt.

The bonus windows apply as normal but because in this case they overlap (Nick 26-20 and Subu 24-18) the 'nearest the pin' rule trims them to Nick 26 to 22 and Subu 22 to 18.
So if Hawt win by 22, both players get 2pts (1 for correct and nearest because they cant be split plus 1 for inide the bonus window).
If Hawt win by 20, its all 2pts to Subu, none to Nick.

Hope that is making sense.

To round out your match-ups I apply all those rules on actual margins to predicted margins to generate game-by-game points allocations, then tally all of those up for the 5 games and determine your head to head winner.

Right, so lets see how the weekend plays out and who 'gets a win' in the praccy match.

Mar 9:

OK new players, here is your chance to see how it works.

First, a blog page is made for each round and updated as the weekend progresses. First up is the games to tip and your match-ups listed.

The games to tip:

1(+) Port Adelaide- Adelaide(-)
2(+) Hawthorn- Carlton(-)
3(+) Geelong- Essendon(-)
4(+) Gold Coast- Brisbane(-)
5(+) Fremantle- West Coast(-)

These are the JLT games this weekend, and none of these games affect your season - its only practice!
So you can see a (+) on the Port Adelaide side and a (-) on the Adleaide side.
You need to tip a margin for that game, with a Port win as a positive number or an Adelaide win as a negative number.

Example: Adelaide to win by 27 points, you enter -27.

There is a Google Forms link below that takes you to the entry page.

Your match-ups this practice round.

@BobLogIV- @Suburbia3121
@BrotherAmos- @NickTheStatsGuy
@CommishSuper10- @MaxLaughton
@GeoffMatho- @MatDatson
@Hardsy05- @JF_40

SO you are not just tipping winners and margins, but your guess/estimate is compared to your weekly opponent. Nearest the pin (etc - see the RULES) page, gets a point (or more) per AFL game. Most points from the 5 games wins the tie.

So lets use this as practice, and once the results are known I will explain the logic behind your scores, their generation and reasoning, as well as who 'won' each match-up.

Here is the link - get in and enter tips ASAP, coz games start tomorrow afternoon - so I need them NOW.

...and relax - its only practice!

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